BA LAN 2030
A chance to join the economic big league
FOREWORD
The Polish economy has been growing non-stop for more than a quarter
of a century now. Since joining the European Union in 2004, Poland’s GDP, measured in purchasing power parity, has increased by an average of four percent a year – one of the best performances in the European Union.
McKinsey & Company, in cooperation with Forbes, has written the report:
you have before you with a dual purpose in mind. Not only do we analyze the source of Poland’s spectacular growth, we point out the even greater potential for further growth that Poland enjoys in the years ahead. Our research shows that the country has the chance to grow as much as five percent a year in the coming decade.
LABOR MARKET
The Polish labor market needs new growth levers. In the past, the main source of additional employees in Poland was the falling unemployment rate, but this source is now drying up. These changes, combined with negative demographic trends and the low level of participation in the workforce, could pose a serious threat to Poland’s ability to maintain its rapid growth rate. Since 2004 the size of the labor force (people in employment plus people currently unemployed but actively seeking employment) has not changed substantially. However, the employment rate has risen from 57 to 72 percent, almost reaching the EU average of 73 percent. In the same period, the unemployment rate has dropped from 19 percent to just four percent, making it one of the lowest in the EU.49 Of course, this has a positive impact on society. But it also means that the country has to look elsewhere to boost the size of its workforce. Poland also faces the challenge of demographic change: A declining rate of natural increase means that in the years 2004-18, the number of people of working age (15- 64 years old) fell by one million and is expected to shrink by a further 2.1 million by 2030. The combination of these two factors leads to an imbalance between demand (worker looking for employers) and supply (employers looking for workers). This means problems for employers trying to find a workforce. Companies in the construction and manufacturing industries are already complaining
that the shortage of workers is one of the factors limiting the level of
production. 51 The scale of the problem is indicated by the fact that at the end of 2018 there were 140,000 vacancies in Poland – and these were for the most part jobs that did not require specialist qualifications.